The evolution simulator

This webpage is trying to type the word "evolution" by randomly selecting each character from the alphabet. The chance that each letter will be selected correctly is 1/26. The chance that every letter would be selected exactly is (1/26)9 (raised to the ninth power) or 1 out of 5,429,503,678,976. The chance of winning the lottery is 1 out of 13,983,816 (based on six different numbers randomly drawn from a set of balls with numbers 1 through 49).

The word "evolution" is only 9 characters. However, to get a correct strand of DNA for the simple virus fX174, needs 390 characters (from which it can choose from either A-C-T-G [Adenine-Cytosine-Thymine-Guanine]). So the probability of getting the correct order of gene sequencing is one out of 4390 which is the following number:


This is essentially 6.4x10238. However, probabilities less than 1 in 1050 are considered statistically impossible.

While this analysis seems crude and oversimplified, a number of researchers have spent more than 10 years to develop the most biologically realistic computer simulation program in the world to study genetic mutation over time. The program is called Mendel's Accountant. This program has been used to completely refute the theory of evolution and is discussed in John Sanford's book "Genetic Entropy: the mystery of the genome" (4th edition). One paper that addressed this same problem with all the biological and statistical rigour is the following paper:

Sanford, J., Brewer, W., Smith, F., & Baumgardner, J. (2015). The waiting time problem in a model hominin population. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, 12(1), 18.

This waiting time problem was recently discussed in the following YouTube video Mathematical Challenges to Darwin’s Theory of Evolution.

Some related websites are: